News

Diagnosis: model beats doctor
Enlarge image

ResearchNetherlandsSwitzerland

Diagnosis: model beats doctor

22.04.2013 - Computers are better than doctors at predicting the outcomes and responses of lung cancer patients to treatment, say Dutch researchers.

The team around Cary Oberije presented its findings at the 2nd Forum of the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology (ESTRO) in Geneva. They said the model’s predictions remained superior to those of doctors even after the latter had seen the patient. The models use genomic information from previous patients to create a statistical formula that can be used to predict the probability of outcome and responses to treatment using radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy for future patients.

Having obtained predictions from the mathematical models, the researchers asked experienced radiation oncologists to predict the likelihood of lung cancer patients surviving for two years, or suffering from shortness of breath (dyspnea) and difficulty swallowing (dysphagia) at two points in time: 1) after they had seen the patient for the first time, and 2) after the treatment plan was made. At the first time point, the doctors predicted two-year survival for 121 patients, dyspnea for 139 and dysphagia for 146 patients. At the second time point, predictions were only available for 35, 39 and 41 patients respectively.

For all three predictions and at both time points, the mathematical models substantially outperformed the doctors' predictions, with the doctors' predictions being little better than those expected by chance.The researchers plotted the results on a special graph [1] on which the area below the plotted line is used for measuring the accuracy of predictions; 1 represents a perfect prediction, while 0.5 represents predictions that were right in 50% of cases, i.e. the same as chance. They found that the model predictions at the first time point were 0.71 for two-year survival, 0.76 for dyspnea and 0.72 for dysphagia. In contrast, the doctors' predictions were 0.56, 0.59 and 0.52 respectively.

"The number of treatment options available for lung cancer patients are increasing, as well as the amount of information available to the individual patient. It is evident that this will complicate the task of the doctor in the future," said Dr. Oberije from Maastricht University Medical Center. "If models based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics already out-perform the doctors, then it is unethical to make treatment decisions based solely on the doctors' opinions. We believe models should be implemented in clinical practice to guide decisions."

© eurobiotechnews.eu/tg

http://www.european-biotechnology-news.com/news/news/2013-02/diagnosis-computer-beats-doctor.html

AntibodiesDenmarkNetherlands

22.05.2015 Dutch arGEN-X and Danish LEO Pharma are pairing up to develop antibody-based treatments for the chronic inflammation that causes many skin conditions.

M&ANetherlandsGermanyEU

12.05.2015 US pharma is coming to European biotech to fill their pipeline. Pfizer is paying €77.5m for an option on Dutch AM-Pharma, while Juno Therapeutics acquired German biotech Stage Cell Therapeutics for around €72m.

Rare diseasesItalyGermanyPoland

15.05.2015 Rome-based pharmaceutical group Sigma-Tau has sold its blood cancer drug programme Oncaspar to US company Baxter, who aims to spin out its biopharma business.



BiologicsFinlandNetherlandsEU

26.05.2015 The Finnish Medicines Agency Fimea has joined the Dutch MEB in its stance on the interchangeability of biosimilars. The Fimea now sees physician-driven switching of biologics as unproblematic.

SurveyGermany

06.05.2015 More revenue, more staff, more funding: in the German biotech industry, all signs are pointing towards growth.

M&AUKSweden

18.05.2015 Double deal for allergy: UK’s speciality biopharma Circassia is boosting its asthma pipeline with the acquisition of Swedish asthma specialist Aerocrine as well as fellow British Prosonix.

BusinessSwedenFrance

02.06.2015 After disappointing Phase III results for immunotherapy tasquinimod and the subsequent discontinuation of the prostrate cancer drug, Swedish Active Biotech is now severely downsizing its operations.

FinancingUK

20.05.2015 The Scottish Government has announced it will double the amount of funds for rare diseases. The New Medicines Fund that was created last year for this purpose will be increased to £80m (€112m).

EPOSwitzerland

30.05.2015 Pharma giant Roche has out-licensed its anaemia drug Mircera to fellow Swiss healthcare company Galenica.

Events

All Events

Partner-Events

Frankfurt am Main (DE)

ACHEMA 2015

Current issue

All issues

Product of the week

Products

Stock list

All quotes

TOP

  • NEUROVIVE PHARMACEUTICAL AB (S)26.20 SEK19.09%
  • PROTHENA PLC (IE)42.69 USD6.86%
  • GW PHARMACEUTICALS (UK)657.00 GBP5.65%

FLOP

  • ANTISOMA (UK)1.00 GBP-35.48%
  • XENETIC BIOSCIENCES (UK)6.00 GBP-14.29%
  • ACTIVE BIOTECH (S)9.45 SEK-10.85%

TOP

  • CHRONTECH PHARMA (S)0.02 SEK100.0%
  • GALAPAGOS (B)51.79 EUR37.8%
  • FLAMEL TECHNOLOGIES (F)19.55 USD36.3%

FLOP

  • NEUROVIVE PHARMACEUTICAL AB (S)26.20 SEK-48.4%
  • CYTOS (CH)0.59 CHF-41.6%
  • ANTISOMA (UK)1.00 GBP-35.5%

TOP

  • CELLECTIS (F)38.88 EUR518.1%
  • WILEX (D)4.11 EUR470.8%
  • ADOCIA (F)67.61 EUR440.4%

FLOP

  • CHRONTECH PHARMA (S)0.02 SEK-81.8%
  • ACTIVE BIOTECH (S)9.45 SEK-72.0%
  • THROMBOGENICS (B)5.33 EUR-70.0%

No liability assumed, Date: 02.06.2015