News

Diagnosis: model beats doctor
Enlarge image

ResearchNetherlandsSwitzerland

Diagnosis: model beats doctor

22.04.2013 - Computers are better than doctors at predicting the outcomes and responses of lung cancer patients to treatment, say Dutch researchers.

The team around Cary Oberije presented its findings at the 2nd Forum of the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology (ESTRO) in Geneva. They said the model’s predictions remained superior to those of doctors even after the latter had seen the patient. The models use genomic information from previous patients to create a statistical formula that can be used to predict the probability of outcome and responses to treatment using radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy for future patients.

Having obtained predictions from the mathematical models, the researchers asked experienced radiation oncologists to predict the likelihood of lung cancer patients surviving for two years, or suffering from shortness of breath (dyspnea) and difficulty swallowing (dysphagia) at two points in time: 1) after they had seen the patient for the first time, and 2) after the treatment plan was made. At the first time point, the doctors predicted two-year survival for 121 patients, dyspnea for 139 and dysphagia for 146 patients. At the second time point, predictions were only available for 35, 39 and 41 patients respectively.

For all three predictions and at both time points, the mathematical models substantially outperformed the doctors' predictions, with the doctors' predictions being little better than those expected by chance.The researchers plotted the results on a special graph [1] on which the area below the plotted line is used for measuring the accuracy of predictions; 1 represents a perfect prediction, while 0.5 represents predictions that were right in 50% of cases, i.e. the same as chance. They found that the model predictions at the first time point were 0.71 for two-year survival, 0.76 for dyspnea and 0.72 for dysphagia. In contrast, the doctors' predictions were 0.56, 0.59 and 0.52 respectively.

"The number of treatment options available for lung cancer patients are increasing, as well as the amount of information available to the individual patient. It is evident that this will complicate the task of the doctor in the future," said Dr. Oberije from Maastricht University Medical Center. "If models based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics already out-perform the doctors, then it is unethical to make treatment decisions based solely on the doctors' opinions. We believe models should be implemented in clinical practice to guide decisions."

© eurobiotechnews.eu/tg

http://www.european-biotechnology-news.com/news/news/2013-02/diagnosis-computer-beats-doctor.html

PoliticsSwitzerland

23.10.2014 Just one day before its planned initial listing, Swiss Molecular Partners has cancelled its IPO. The reason: "unfavourable market conditions".

PoliticsEU

23.10.2014 Jean-Claude Juncker can breathe a sigh of relief as MEPs voted “yes” by a large majority to his team of European Union Commissioners. Previous to the vote, Juncker had shifted the EMA back to the health commissioner in response to protests.

FinancingFrance

21.10.2014 Yet another European company is looking for money on the US stock exchange – French DBV Technologies SA is all set up for its secondary listing on NASDAQ. The French biotech company hopes to rake in US$98m for its peanut allergy patches.

FinancingDenmark

18.10.2014 After raising US$220.5m (€172m) with its IPO, fast Forward Pharma’s lucky streak hits an obstacle on the road to success with shares falling 17% on its first day of trading.

M&AUKItaly

17.10.2014 Abandoned at the altar: Abbvie has dropped plans to acquire UK’s Shire following new US tax rules. This puts a stop to one of the biggest pharma mergers planned this year.

FinancingUKBelgium

15.10.2014 Bicycle Therapeutics wins €25m backing by major pharma venture capitalists for the development of a new class of oncology drugs.

FinancingGermanySwitzerlandNetherlands

13.10.2014 Biotechnology IPOs are back in fashion – German Probiodrug AG wants to raise €32m with its IPO, whilst Swiss Molecular Partners AG hopes the launch of its IPO will gain a revenue of €145m.

BusinessIreland

10.10.2014 Actavis has announced plans to merge with American pharma company Durata - a move that will strengthen their infectious diseases portfolio.

RegulationEU

07.10.2014 In an unprecedented move, the European Medicines Agency has approved a system allowing the future analysis of clinical trial data.

FinanceNetherlandsEU

06.10.2014 Another fund from the Netherlands has raised €92m in its first close and will invest the money in companies developing innovative therapeutics, medical devices and diagnostics.

Events

All Events

Current issue

All issues

Product of the week

Products

Stock list

All quotes

TOP

  • 4SC0.97 EUR0.00%
  • ACTELION112.40 CHF0.00%
  • ADDEX3.30 CHF0.00%

FLOP

  • CYTOTOOLS31.45 EUR-0.47%
  • 4SC0.97 EUR0.00%
  • ACTELION112.40 CHF0.00%

TOP

  • BIOFRONTERA2.90 EUR31.8%
  • VITA 344.32 EUR7.2%
  • BB BIOTECH157.70 EUR6.1%

FLOP

  • PAION2.24 EUR-27.7%
  • CYTOS0.16 CHF-23.8%
  • MAGFORCE5.90 EUR-16.9%

TOP

  • SANTHERA85.50 CHF2288.3%
  • CO.DON2.75 EUR183.5%
  • PAION2.24 EUR143.5%

FLOP

  • CYTOS0.16 CHF-95.9%
  • 4SC0.97 EUR-44.3%
  • THERAMETRICS0.08 CHF-42.9%

No liability assumed, Date: 25.10.2014