News

Diagnosis: model beats doctor
Enlarge image

ResearchNetherlandsSwitzerland

Diagnosis: model beats doctor

22.04.2013 - Computers are better than doctors at predicting the outcomes and responses of lung cancer patients to treatment, say Dutch researchers.

The team around Cary Oberije presented its findings at the 2nd Forum of the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology (ESTRO) in Geneva. They said the model’s predictions remained superior to those of doctors even after the latter had seen the patient. The models use genomic information from previous patients to create a statistical formula that can be used to predict the probability of outcome and responses to treatment using radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy for future patients.

Having obtained predictions from the mathematical models, the researchers asked experienced radiation oncologists to predict the likelihood of lung cancer patients surviving for two years, or suffering from shortness of breath (dyspnea) and difficulty swallowing (dysphagia) at two points in time: 1) after they had seen the patient for the first time, and 2) after the treatment plan was made. At the first time point, the doctors predicted two-year survival for 121 patients, dyspnea for 139 and dysphagia for 146 patients. At the second time point, predictions were only available for 35, 39 and 41 patients respectively.

For all three predictions and at both time points, the mathematical models substantially outperformed the doctors' predictions, with the doctors' predictions being little better than those expected by chance.The researchers plotted the results on a special graph [1] on which the area below the plotted line is used for measuring the accuracy of predictions; 1 represents a perfect prediction, while 0.5 represents predictions that were right in 50% of cases, i.e. the same as chance. They found that the model predictions at the first time point were 0.71 for two-year survival, 0.76 for dyspnea and 0.72 for dysphagia. In contrast, the doctors' predictions were 0.56, 0.59 and 0.52 respectively.

"The number of treatment options available for lung cancer patients are increasing, as well as the amount of information available to the individual patient. It is evident that this will complicate the task of the doctor in the future," said Dr. Oberije from Maastricht University Medical Center. "If models based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics already out-perform the doctors, then it is unethical to make treatment decisions based solely on the doctors' opinions. We believe models should be implemented in clinical practice to guide decisions."

© eurobiotechnews.eu/tg

BusinessSpainUKSweden

31.07.2014 Astrazeneca is buying the rights to Almirall’s respiratory drugs in a deal worth up to €1.56bn.

BusinessFranceGermanySwitzerlandUK

30.07.2014 Rumours have it that French Danone wants to sell its medical nutrition business to US drugmaker Hospira for US$5bn in yet another tax inversion deal.

RegulationUKEU

29.07.2014 The first vaccine for malaria may be within reach: The European Medicines Agency has accepted Glaxosmithkline’s malaria vaccine candidate RTS,S for regulatory review.

FundingEU

25.07.2014 The European Commission aims to support innovation in Europe and announced a "Fast Track to Innovation" pilot as well as five innovation prices under Horizon 2020.

ResearchUKEU

23.07.2014 In the largest genomic study published on any psychiatric disorder so far, researchers have indentified 83 new locations in the human genome associated with the risk of developing schizophrenia.

BusinessUKIreland

21.07.2014 Abbvie’s tenacious pursuit of British rival Shire is finally paying off: The two companies have unveiled their transatlantic merger worth £32bn (€40bn).

ResearchEUSwitzerland

17.07.2014 A trans-border, cross-disciplinary project that aims to model the human brain in a computer has drawn heavy criticism from scientists pledging to boycott the project.

MergerUK

16.07.2014 After rejecting three merger propositions from US competitor Abbvie, Shire has now given up resistance to the deal and is recommending a new and improved offer worth £31.3bn.

AcquisitionUKDenmarkSpainGermanyFrance

15.07.2014 British specialty pharma company Prostrakan is handing over £230m for Archimedes Pharma Limited, a company that brings its lead product Pecfent and its proprietary drug delivery technology platform into the deal.

FundingEU

11.07.2014 Among the seven newly launched Joint Technology Initiatives (JTI) of Horizon2020 are two with deep roots in biotech: IMI is going into its second round while the newly established Bio-based Industries partnership invests in bioeconomy.

Events

All Events

Current issue

All issues

Product of the week

Products

Stock list

All quotes

TOP

  • NOVACYT (F)4.97 EUR11.43%
  • PROSENSA (NL)10.24 USD5.89%
  • NEUROVIVE PHARMACEUTICAL AB (S)74.00 SEK5.71%

FLOP

  • ANTISOMA (UK)1.32 GBP-14.84%
  • XENETIC BIOSCIENCES (UK)6.00 GBP-14.29%
  • STENTYS (F)7.26 EUR-12.32%

TOP

  • WILEX (D)2.70 EUR229.3%
  • NEUROVIVE PHARMACEUTICAL AB (S)74.00 SEK52.6%
  • Allergy Therapeutics (UK)20.00 GBP34.4%

FLOP

  • HYBRIGENICS (F)1.68 EUR-29.7%
  • GW PHARMACEUTICALS (UK)418.50 GBP-20.1%
  • PHARMING (NL)0.44 EUR-20.0%

TOP

  • SANTHERA (CH)59.90 CHF2836.3%
  • GW PHARMACEUTICALS (UK)418.50 GBP634.2%
  • PAION (D)2.50 EUR284.6%

FLOP

  • EVOCUTIS (UK)0.21 GBP-92.7%
  • CYTOS (CH)0.27 CHF-92.0%
  • THROMBOGENICS (B)9.16 EUR-70.3%

No liability assumed, Date: 31.07.2014